Enhancements to Statistical Probability of Area Models based upon updated ISRID data collection for Autistic Spectrum Disorders and Typically Developing Children

Robert J Koester PhD, FRGS School of the Environment, Geography and Geosciences, University of Portsmouth dbS Productions UK, USA

Email: Robert@dbs-sar.com



Both Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) individuals and Typically Developing (TD) children are associated with Search and Rescue incidents. Though they are in the same age range, these two groups are typically placed into different subject categories in lost person behavior profiles. This work compares these two age similar profiles to critically examine what statistical differences do exist. In addition, a new geo-spatial statistical point model is introduced, potentially applicable to all lost person subject profiles. Retrospective data from the updated International Search & Rescue Incident Database (ISRID2) was used to examine both spatial and incident characteristics of individuals with ASD (n=338) and TD children (n=2335) who were reported missing and then were the subject of a search. The updated version of ISRID now contains 145,000 incidents. Those with ASD are 3-4 times more likely to require a search effort (P << .0001). ASD children (age 1-15) were not found to be statistically significant than ASD adults. The new point model and watershed model for ASD is introduced. Survivability curves are now reported out to the 5% chance of survival with findings of 7 days for ASD and 11 days for TD Children. Search incidents for missing ASD and TD children demonstrate significant differences but also have some common features. Both adults and children with ASD share the same geo-spatial outcomes.

Keywords: ISRID, Missing Persons, GIS, Lost Person Behavior, Models

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