Rafael López-Martínez1,2,3, Jorge Belmont4, Luis Gómez Negrete5, Rosalba Vences Peña5 Juan Alfonso Nicolás Martínez6, Elsa Flores Alarcón7
Institute of Geology. National Autonomous University of Mexico. Mexico. CP: 04510
2 Rescate al Día. SAR Training Center. Insurgentes Sur 3493, Mexico City. CP:14020
3 Brigada de Rescate del Socorro Alpino de México A.C. Mexico City, Mexico
4 Collége Technique de Sauvetage en Montagne Mexico. Cuemanco 207, Mexico City, Mexico. CP:16034
5 National Commission of Search. República de Cuba 43, Piso 3 Colonia Centro (Área 1), Alcaldía Cuauhtémoc. Mexico City, Mexico. CP: 06000,
6 Medical Emergencies and Rescue Squad (ERUM). Chimalpopoca 137, Colonia Obrera, Mexico City, Mexico
7 Mexican Red Cross. Delegation Mexico City. Av. Ejército Nacional Mexicano 1032, Polanco, Polanco I Secc, Miguel Hidalgo, Mexico City, Mexico. CP:11510
Email ralopezm@geologia.unam.mx
https://doi.org/10.61618/CBVQ9155
Abstract
For the first time in Mexico, a large-scale search for a missing person was conducted using a Search Theory–based methodology. A strong Incident Command structure and effective inter-agency coordination allowed for detailed coverage of the search area. This framework enabled the calculation of key parameters—search effort, coverage, and probability of detection (POD)—which in turn provided the first quantitative assessment of search effectiveness in the country. These data supported authorities’ decision-making on whether to continue or suspend the search. After three weeks, operations on the mountain concluded, and the case transitioned into a police investigation. The experience also revealed significant deficiencies in the current search and rescue system, highlighting the urgent need to improve training and methodologies to strengthen national search capabilities.
KEY WORDS: Search Theory, Search and Rescue (SAR), Probability of Detection (POD), Incident Command System, Ajusco, Mexico